The moment of truth regarding the alleged power points error is getting closer.

As I said late last week, it looks like the Perry boys basketball team may get squeezed out of the state tournament because of the alleged flaw exposed by a local engineer.

The Pumas did not qualify for their section tournament, and currently sit No. 22 in the power points. Normally, it would leave Perry with a very good chance to qualify for state, but the alleged mistake now makes it more perilous.

Here’s why:

Desert Mountain (No. 24 overall), Chaparral (25), Tolleson (32), Kofa (33) and Millennium (36) have all qualified for their section tournaments.

If the number of total games doesn’t affect a team’s power point ranking, like the AIA claims, then losses by Desert Mountain and Chaparral would leave Perry in the clear. Both teams will be heavy underdogs in the first round, and it doesn’t make any sense that a loss by either team would help it jump the Pumas in the standings.

However, if the flaw is realized, Desert Mountain will likely pass at least Cienega and possibly Perry, which would drop the Pumas to the 23rd spot. If Chaparral also passes Perry – which doesn’t look likely at this time, but who knows? – then it gets very dicey for the Pumas. Luckily for Perry, Westwind Prep is ahead of it and won’t play in the tournament, so that does give an extra spot to a 25th team.

Furthermore, Perry is directly behind North in the standings, and a loss by the Mustangs in the first round of the sectionals would have made the Pumas nearly a shoo-in to make the tournament. But if the flaw is real, North won’t drop behind Perry with the loss.

As it shakes out, the Pumas still have a good chance to make the Division I tournament, but the team will have to sweat it out until Thursday morning.

On the flip side, Chaparral should make the tournament even with a loss as long as Tolleson, Kofa or Millennium doesn’t pull an upset. The Firebirds would have been in danger of falling behind Mountain Ridge by losing in the first round, but the alleged flaw in the system likely won’t let that happen.

Desert Mountain, too, should qualify regardless of its result on Wednesday unless two of the teams below it win first round sectional tournament games.

In Division II, it looks like the playoff teams are set because everyone in the top-24 made the sectionals. If the flaw didn’t exist, No. 25 Desert Edge (74.5378 PP) could hope to jump No. 24 Thunderbird (74.9588 PP) if the Chiefs lost, but Thunderbird will likely get a boost either way and should be in.

In girls hoops, keep an eye on No. 26 Horizon in D-I. The Huskies are currently No. 26, but No. 25 Basha and No. 24 Marana Mountain View are idle this week. Horizon may be able to sneak past them by playing in an extra power point game.

The Queen Creek girls are in the same boat at No. 25. No. 23 Sierra Linda is idle this week.

This is a lot of information to digest and may be hard to understand, but it should become clear by Thursday which teams were helped and which teams were hurt by this alleged power points flaw.

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