Here is my stab at predicting the Division I state basketball tournament from start to finish. My Division II predictions can be found here.

Division I
First round:  No. 17 Boulder Creek over No. 16 Desert Mountain; No. 9 Brophy over No. 24 Cienega; No. 12 Mountain View over No. 21 Rincon; No. 20 Cibola over No. 13 Lake Havasu; No. 19 Mountain Pointe over No. 13 Ironwood Ridge; No. 11 Buena over No. 22 Chaparral; No. 10 North over No. 23 Perry; No. 18 Dobson over No. 15 Hamilton.

Boulder Creek against Desert Mountain is a bit of a toss-up, as is Cibola against Lake Havasu. Buena beat up on some bad Tucson teams this year before getting routed by Gilbert in the first round of sectionals, but I think the Colts beat Chaparral because of the home court advantage. Dobson against Hamilton should be a good one, but the Mustangs have better balance and more playmakers.

Second round: No. 1 Corona del Sol over Boulder Creek; Brophy over No. 8 Westview; Mountain View over No. 5 Desert Vista; No. 4 Gilbert over Cibola; Mountain Pointe over No. 3 Red Mountain; No. 6 Cesar Chavez over Buena; No. 7 Basha over North; No. 2 Pinnacle over Dobson.

The featured game is certainly Desert Vista-Mountain View, as those are two of the better teams in Division I but have to meet up very early. Mountain Pointe is better than a 19 seed and Red Mountain probably shouldn’t be No. 3, so that game could be a good one. A potential North-Basha second-round contest would also be interesting. Pinnacle and Corona are the favorites to make the title game but will have good competition in the second round no matter who they end up playing.

Quarterfinals: Corona del Sol over Brophy; Mountain View over Gilbert; Cesar Chavez over Mountain Pointe; Pinnacle over Basha.

Gilbert will almost certainly make the quarterfinals, and their matchup with the Mountain View/Desert Vista winner will once again be the main attraction in this round. The Tigers have the type of perimeter offense that gives Mountain View trouble, and Gilbert is disciplined enough defensively that the Toros will have to earn their points. If these teams meet up, I think it ends up being low-scoring and close, but Cam Boone will be the best player on the court, and he will help the Toros pull it out. Corona del Sol is too explosive and should handle Brophy, while in this scenario, Cesar Chavez benefits from a good draw to make the semifinals. Pinnacle-Basha would be high-scoring and entertaining, but the Pioneers’ half-court offense would gobble up Basha to lead to the win.

Semifinals: Corona del Sol over Mountain View; Pinnacle over Cesar Chavez.

Mountain View defeated Corona del Sol in the quarterfinals last season on its way to the state title. The Aztecs are looking for revenge, and have the size to slow down the Toros and the athleticism to race past them. Corona should win by double digits. Pinnacle will definitely get the easier semifinal matchup if it advances this far, as Desert Vista, Mountain View, Gilbert and Corona are arguably the other top four teams in the state and all on the same side of the bracket.

Finals: Corona del Sol 72, Pinnacle 65.

This is the game most want to see in the finals. Both teams have some hurdles to clear, but they have been a notch above the competition all season long and are clearly the two top teams in Division I. The Aztecs have more of an inside presence and more reliable ways to score, but if Pinnacle shoots the ball well it can pull off the upset. Both teams are very balanced and hard to defend, and both like pushing the pace. This could be a competitive and entertaining state championship game if both teams get here. In the end, the guard play of Calaen Robinson and Casey Benson and the inside play of Avery Moss and Andrus Peat should win out to lead the Aztecs to the state title.

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